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China retaliates against US tariffs - but it also wants to talk

Tensions are rising between the US and China as a new round of tit-for-tat tariffs escalates the trade war. Following a 10% US levy on Chinese imports, China retaliated with tariffs on US agricultural products, specifically targeting key supporters of Donald Trump. This move, while potentially hurting US farmers (78% of farming-dependent counties voted for Trump in 2024), is viewed by analysts as a calculated opening gambit, leaving room for negotiation or further escalation.

China's foreign ministry insists it will "fight to the bitter end," rejecting US pressure and calling for dialogue and cooperation. While the current tariffs are lower than those imposed during Trump's previous term, the impact on the already sluggish Chinese economy and consumer confidence is a concern, particularly as the annual parliamentary session focuses on economic recovery.

The possibility of talks between Trump and Xi Jinping, raised last month, remains uncertain. China is unlikely to initiate contact, wanting to avoid appearing subservient. Furthermore, China's response to the fentanyl issue has been to reiterate its existing drug control measures, rather than offering concessions. A recent White Paper details China's efforts to combat fentanyl-related crimes.

The situation presents a complex scenario. China aims to leverage the tariffs to pressure the Trump administration, potentially shifting blame for economic hardship onto the US while simultaneously seeking international allies against Trump's protectionist policies. State media portrays the US as a bully targeting both friends and foes, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding the US-led world order, particularly in Europe and the UK. The ultimate outcome hinges on whether either side chooses to de-escalate or further escalate the trade conflict.

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